Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 0.773535 0.900673 1.041732 1.209790 1.404537 1.623097 1.887013
2025-01-26 0.571416 0.742379 0.953139 1.231856 1.590666 2.037046 2.634779
2025-02-02 0.485609 0.681668 0.942002 1.312518 1.826065 2.512716 3.501106
2025-02-09 0.416009 0.622055 0.912726 1.351914 1.998288 2.914570 4.313012
2025-02-16 0.359093 0.567216 0.876639 1.369015 2.132250 3.270175 5.096807
2025-02-23 0.311094 0.516161 0.835710 1.368320 2.233079 3.581716 5.846209
2025-03-02 0.270336 0.469209 0.792733 1.355326 2.308270 3.856724 6.565597
2025-03-09 0.239509 0.433432 0.761723 1.355447 2.401245 4.166198 7.372855
2025-03-16 0.206016 0.387831 0.707422 1.307216 2.403388 4.320537 7.929927
2025-03-23 0.197686 0.385956 0.728575 1.393901 2.651822 4.925213 9.347612
2025-03-30 0.173484 0.350923 0.684904 1.355317 2.665302 5.109274 10.016599
2025-04-06 0.151724 0.317516 0.639817 1.307648 2.654359 5.244359 10.604736
2025-04-13 0.133083 0.288246 0.599895 1.266696 2.654779 5.407391 11.280794
2025-04-20 0.123205 0.275856 0.592269 1.290523 2.789290 5.850312 12.576269
2025-04-27 0.119894 0.277016 0.612555 1.374999 3.059631 6.597395 14.589233
2025-05-04 0.113038 0.269319 0.612910 1.416246 3.242013 7.181491 16.323904
2025-05-11 0.105035 0.257840 0.603428 1.434150 3.374593 7.673063 17.912768
2025-05-18 0.096566 0.244038 0.586858 1.433421 3.464145 8.078769 19.353648
2025-05-25 0.088161 0.229207 0.566000 1.419818 3.521693 8.418055 20.679936
2025-06-01 0.081472 0.217723 0.551632 1.419945 3.611770 8.841716 22.254865
2025-06-08 0.072646 0.199516 0.518563 1.369450 3.571368 8.951904 23.080990
2025-06-15 0.072042 0.202924 0.540003 1.460204 3.896795 9.982902 26.316622
2025-06-22 0.065016 0.187957 0.512453 1.419809 3.879726 10.164118 27.411108